Is Your Favorite MLB Team Making The Playoffs?

As the MLB regular season is coming to an end, many divisions are still too close to call. Using provable stats, I am going to try and predict more than a month in advance which teams will make the playoffs, and which will inevitably fall short.

As the MLB regular season is coming to an end, many divisions are still too close to call. Using provable stats, I am going to try and predict more than a month in advance which teams will make the playoffs, and which will inevitably fall short.  If you are reading this after the 2021 season has already finished, go see how my predictions did!

NL East

  As of September 4, 2021, the three best teams in the NL East are: the Braves in first, the Phillies 2 games back, and the Mets 3.5 games back. 

                     Atlanta Braves

 The Atlanta Braves have 9 series’ left.  They play the Rockies, the Nationals, the Marlins, the Rockies again, the Giants, the Diamondbacks, the Padres, the Phillies, and the Mets.  The Braves have a much better record than the Rockies, so my best guess is that they’ll take at least 5 of the 7 games played.  Throughout the 2021 season, the Braves have played the Nationals 16 times and won 12 games, which is a 75% win rate.  To continue this trend most closely, the Braves should win 2 out of 3 games in the upcoming series.  The Braves have played the Marlins 16 times and won 9 games, which is a 56% win rate.  To continue the trend, they should win 2 out of 3 in that series.  With a 66% win rate against the Giants, the Braves should take 2 out of 3 games.  The Braves winning percentage against the Diamondbacks this year is only 33%, yet the Braves have almost 30 more wins.  To factor these things in, I predict the Braves will win 2 out of 4 against the Diamondbacks.  The Braves have a 50% win rate against the Padres in two games, and have scored a total of 4 runs against them.  The Padres have only scored 3 runs in the two games, so I predict the Braves will take 2 out of 3.  With a 44% win rate against the Phillies, they should win 1 out of 3.  Finally, with a 50% percent win rate against the Mets, and many more runs scored, the Braves should take 2 out of 3.

              Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have 9 series’ left.  They play the Marlins, the Brewers, the Rockies, the Cubs, the Mets, the Orioles, the Pirates, the Braves, and the Marlins again.  With a 53% win rate against the Marlins,  I predict that they will win 3 out of 6 games in all.  With a 100% win rate against the Brewers, I predict they will take all three games.  With a 33% win rate against the Rockies, I predict 2 out of 4.  With a 75% win rate against the Cubs, I predict the Phillies to take 2 out of 3.  With a 50% win rate against the Mets, I predict them to take 1 out of 3. The Phillies haven’t played the Orioles yet this year, but comparing their records, the Phillies should take at least 2 out of 3.  With a 33% win rate against the Pirates, they should take 2 out of 4.  Finally, with a 56% win rate against the Braves, they should take 2 out of 3.

                                  New York Mets

The New York Mets have 9 series’ left.  They play the Nationals, the Marlins, the Yankees, the Cardinals, the Phillies, the Red Sox, the Brewers, the Marlins again, and the Braves.  With a 57% win rate against the Nationals, I predict they will take 3 out of 5.  With a 52% win rate against the Marlins, they should take 4 out of 7.  With a 66% win rate against the Yankees, they should take 2 out of 3.  With a 28% win rate against the Cardinals, they should win 1 out of 3.  With a 50% win rate against the Phillies, they should take 2 out of 3.  With a 0% win rate against the Red Sox, they should go 0 for 2.  With a 66% win rate against the Brewers, they should take 2 out of 3.  Finally, with a 50% win rate against the Braves, and a much worse record, the Mets should only take 1 out of 3 games in their final series.

            Final Standings On Average

Braves 89-73      Advances to Playoffs

Phillies 86-76     

Mets    81-81     

 

AL East

As of September 4, 2021, the three best teams in the AL East are:  The Rays in first, the Yankees 8.5 games back, the Red Sox 9 games back, and the Blue Jays 12 games back.

                   Tampa Bay Rays 

The Tampa Rays have 9 series’ left.  They play the Twins, the Red Sox, the Tigers, the Blue Jays, the Tigers again, the Blue Jays again, the Marlins, the Astros, and the Yankees.  In the regular season, the Rays have played the Twins 3 times and won 1 game, which is a 33% win rate.  To continue this trend, they should take 1 out of 3 games in the upcoming series.  The Rays have played the Red Sox 17 times and won 10 games, which is a 58% win rate.  To follow this trend, the Rays should take 2 out of 3 against the Red Sox.  The Rays have not played the Tigers yet this season, but comparing their records, the Rays should take at least 4 out of 7 games.  With a 61% win rate against the Blue Jays, the Rays should take 4 out of 6.  With a 66% win rate against the Marlins, they should take 2 out of 3.  With a 33% win rate against the Astros, they should take 1 out of 3.  Finally, with a win rate of 56% against the Yankees, the Rays should take 2 out of 3 games.

                New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have 10 series’ left.  They play the Orioles, the Blue Jays, the Mets, the Twins, the Orioles, the Indians, the Rangers, the Red Sox, the Blue Jays again, and the Rays.  With a 61% win rate against the Orioles, the Yankees should win 4 out of 6 games.  With a 50% win rate against the Blue Jays, they should take 3 out of 7 games.  With a 33% win rate against the Mets, they should win 1 out of 3.  With an 80% win rate against the Twins, the Yankees should win the one-game series.  With a 75% win rate against the Indians, the Yankees should take 2 out of 3.  With a 75% win rate against the Rangers, they should take 2 out of 3.  With a 37% win rate against the Red Sox, they should win 1 out of 3.  Finally, with a 44% win rate against the Rays, the Yankees should win 1 of 3 games.

                   Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox has 8 series left.  They play the Indians, the Rays, the White Sox, the Mariners, the Orioles, the Mets, the Yankees, the Orioles again, and the Nationals.  With a 66% win rate against the Indians, they should take 2 out of 3.  With a 42% win rate against the Rays, they should take 1 out of 3.  With a 50% win rate against the White Sox, I predict they will take 1 out of 3 games.  With a 50% win rate against the Mariners, and a much better record, they should take 2 out of 3.  With a 69% win rate against the Orioles, they should take 4 out of 6.  With a 100% win rate against the Mets, they should win 2 out of 2.  With a 63% win rate against the Yankees, they should win 2 out of 3.  Finally, since the Red Sox haven’t played the Nationals yet this year, I will have to use their records.  The Red Sox have 20 more wins than the Nationals, so I predict that they will take 2 out of 3 games.

                 Toronto Blue Jays

As of September 4, 2021, the Blue Jays have 9 series’ left.  They play the Athletics, the Yankees, the Orioles, the Rays, the Twins, the Rays again, the Twins again, the Yankees again, and the Orioles again.  With a 50% win rate against the Athletics, they should win 2 out of 3 games.  With a 50% win rate against the Yankees, along with a better record, they should win 4 out of 7 games.  With an 81% win rate against the Orioles, I predict the Blue Jays will take 6 out of 7 games.  With a 39% win rate against the Rays, they should only take 2 out of 6.  Finally, the Blue Jays have not played the Twins yet this season, but comparing their records, the Blue Jays should take 5 out of 7 games.  

 

Final Standings On Average

Rays       108-54      Advances to Playoffs

Red Sox    93-69        (Predicted Wild-Card)

Yankees    92-70        (Predicted Wild-Card)

Blue Jays  89-73

        Bonus: Wild Card Game

If the Yankees and the Red Sox both make the AL wild-card, this is the wild-card game outcome I predict.  The Yankees will probably pitch Gerrit Cole, and the Red Sox will probably pitch Chris Sale.  Throughout the 2021 season, Gerrit Cole has pitched relatively poorly against the Red Sox.  He’s given up 10 runs in 3 starts, and only won 1 game against the Red Sox this year.  At the time of writing, Chris Sale hasn’t pitched against the Yankees since 2019.  Throughout his career against the Yankees, Sale has given up 40 earned runs in 14 starts, or an average of 2.85 runs per game.  Gerrit Cole has given up an average of 3.34 runs per game.  The Yankees have scored 55 runs against the Red Sox this year, and the Red Sox have scored 66 runs.  I can confidently predict that if it comes down to a wild-card game between the Yankees and the Red Sox, the Red Sox will be the ones advancing to the playoffs.